CHAPTER 2A

How Many Lawyers is Optimal

Laws protect Property, and thus lawyers are absolutely necessary to any society. All must agree that there is obviously an optimum number of lawyers, just as there is an optimum number of truck drivers. (See Magee graph - Appx B & C )

It would seem that there are not too many lawyers. A saturated market would be evidenced by a decline in earnings, which is not happening (Rosen 1993). The percentage of the world's lawyers which are in the U.S. is roughly the percentage of the US's share of world's GNP (Galanter & Epp 1992). Sanders & Williams (1986) said that demand for lawyers increased in the 1960s with additional new business customers, while private citizen numbers remained relatively unchanged.

When the Canadian supply of lawyers doubled in the decade from 1970 to 1980, regression analysis indicated that the supply outdistanced the demand (market effect) and caused a 14% decline in earnings, after calculating the naturally lower pay scale for inexperienced new lawyers, which accounted for 8%. (Stager & Foot 1989). Likewise the United States. Moderate success pays well, however. The supply of new lower-pay lawyer increased while the stars of the profession pull up the average pay way up.

The Hollywood stars who are paid millions per picture also pull the average pay of the less successful actor and actress who still waits tables. The "star output" skews statistics in any industry.

There does not seem to be too few lawyers. The demand would drive the price up still higher if the consumer of legal services found an inadequate supply. The present ratio is 3.5 per 1000, up from 2.5 per 1000 in 1982 and 1.5 per 1000 in 1900 and 1950. (see Appx LAWYRSTATS)

Olson (1992) suggests that free entry and exit in the market will establish when society is served by the optimum number of lawyers.

Keefer (1992) said that it is regulations of all sorts that promote the demand for lawyers. Reduce the regulations and the demand naturally decreases. Liability standards can be too strict, which leads to excessive litigation and anti-competitiveness.

Abel (1986) says that the lawyer population is the same ratio from 1900 until 1950, indicating the industry was limiting entry into the profession. (see Appx LAWYRSTATS)

The Magee graph is supposed to "prove" that some point (long exceeded) represents an equilibrium of lawyers. Epp (1992) says that the nature of the intervening line on the Magee curve may have more optimal points. (see Epp graph Appx B) The equation may be non-linear. Cross (1992) said that the Magee curve might just as well be interpreted a different way. (see Cross graph Appx C)